Game One: Five things to watch out for

Nick Fray, Origin Online and Over the Line Sports

Part of the magic of State of Origin is the unpredictability of it all – what people expect to happen often doesn’t, great players can become overawed, game-plans get thrown out the window and unexpected heroes are born. Sure, you could joke about the predictability of Queensland winning after eight successive series victories, but deep down in their heart of hearts even the most ardent of Queensland fans go into every game with nervous anticipation.

Still, Origin’s unpredictability has never stopped anyone from having their say, and in that spirit we make some fearless predictions as to how tonight’s blockbuster will play out.

1. It will be low-scoring

For all the brilliant attacking talent on the park tonight, the very mythos of State of Origin is built on the idea of digging deep and never letting your mates down. Except in extremely rare cases, poor defensive players simply don’t get picked for State of Origin, and there is not a single man amongst tonight’s 34 combatants that could be called a defensive liability. Neither side should expect to be given an inch, particularly in the first half, which has traditionally only yielded a try or two in most recent Origin clashes. The game may well open up a little in the second half due to the heavy fatigue placed on the forwards with the incredible speed of the game, but I still wouldn’t expect either side to post a big score.

2. Tries will come from kicks

Going hand-in-hand with the game’s defensive nature, expect both sides to look to the kicking game to produce four-pointers. Queensland have had a decided advantage in this area in recent times, with their backs often benefiting from deft grubber kicks from Cronk, Thurston and Smith. Billy Slater in particular has made an art form out of chasing down kicks for seemingly miraculous tries. This is no doubt a huge part of the reason why the Blues have selected Trent Hodkinson, one of the competition’s best kickers, at halfback for this game. In addition to the grubber, expect Hodkinson to take to the skies to make use of the aerial talents of fellow debutant Daniel Tupou, although his opponent Brent Tate has been superb under the high ball in recent series.

3. Tensions will boil over

We may not see punches thrown like we did when Paul Gallen and Nate Myles went at it last year, but at a bare minimum you can expect plenty of pushing and shoving and getting in faces. Animosity between the two camps has been at its highest point since the 80s over the last couple of years, and with so little turnover in personnel you can bet these boys can’t wait to renew hostilities tonight. While most of this is likely to occur in the first 20 minutes, you can bet that if either side is trailing late in the game someone will look to inspire his side with a big hit or even a sharp jab if the situation is desperate enough.

4. The fullbacks will be in everything

Both sides will be confident they know what their opponents will throw at them, which means the x-factor provided by both fullbacks will be crucial tonight. Although they possess different games, Jarryd Hayne and Billy Slater are the players most capable of producing something magical that the opposition won’t see coming, whether it be a scything run past four defenders from Hayne or Slater planting  grubber that looked destined for the dead-ball line. With neither Reynolds and Hodkinson being traditional ball-playing halves, expect Hayne to be involved in every Blues attacking set, while Slater will be happy to pick his spots and strike whenever a half-chance presents itself. Whichever of these two champions can have the biggest impact will go a long way to deciding tonight’s winner.

5. It will be close

Fans of both sides, as always, will be full of bravado and proclaiming that their side will ‘smash’ their hated rivals tonight, but chances are there will be nothing in this one. The vast majority of recent Origin matches have come down to the dying stages and tonight should be no different, and anyone having a (responsible) bet on the game would be wise to stay within the 1-12 margins. In what is likely to be another intense defensive struggle, It’s hard to see either side run away with this one unless perhaps Queensland have one of those games where everything comes together. However, the defensive qualities of this New South Wales side should ensure this doesn’t happen. Ladies and gentlemen, we are in for another classic.

Predicted score – Queensland 16 New South Wales 12